Why the Colts shan't go undefeated

Take it from a guy who's .300 in picking games against the spread this year -- The 10-0 Colts will lose before the NFL regular season is out. I know, I know, it's blasphemy to speak against Colts QB and football messiah Peyton Manning, but I will spell out my argument in three simple points, so easy even Mike Vanderjagt could understand.

1. Consistency. The Colts have six games left in the season. That's 360 minutes of football. To go undefeated, they'll need to play with focus and discipline for at least 300 of those minutes, probably more like 330 or 340, since just one bad quarter is enough to doom a team on any given Sunday. Can they do that? Maybe. (They've only had one major breakdown this year, when the Rams went nuts on them in the first quarter of a Monday Night game. They came back to win that one after Rams QB Marc Bulger was injured.) I take the under on 360 minutes of focus for the rest of the season.

2. Schedule. After fattening up for two months on creampuffs, bon-bons, and maybe even one prep team (if I remember right), Indianapolis is now facing teams with winning records. Before the year is out, the Colts will play Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville, San Diego, and at Seattle. These are quality teams, playoff teams, the types of teams Indy did not face in September and October.

3. They're just too good. The Colts lead their division by two games right now, and lead by two games (in the loss column) in the race for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. The Colts are so good this season, they might have both the division and homefield locked up by week 15, almost certainly by week 16. That gives coach Tony Dungy the ability to rest his banged up starters, and it gives Colts opponents the ability to take advantage of Indy's second string late in the season. That's why if the Colts haven't lost by week 16 at Seattle, I predict the Seahawks will beat them.

And when I am right, we'll get to see what I've been missing all year: Sad Peyton.